Hello everybody, it’s time for the glorious season in fall where the wings are hotter, the take-out orders larger, and the members of your family you can not stand are at least tolerable (so long as they’re wearing the correct colors). It’s football time!
Now each of the past two years, I do my own picks for the week to rival other networks’, mainly ESPN. Given that ESPN has the largest number of experts doing theirs, I mention them in my posts just to give a guideline as to how well I should be doing week-to-week. Last season, I never posted a results piece detailing how well I finished compared to the ESPN experts. My own personal record of picks was 169-87, beating my results from two years ago, 164-92. Assuming an average week for the ESPN experts, I anticipate that I finished fourth out of thirteen. I will take those results, but now there are fourteen pickers in this league (including myself), so the work is harder.
Now without further ado, here are my quick-note Week 1 NFL picks.
Denver over Baltimore
Yes, this game already happened. But I always make it a point to take a timestamped photo of my Thursday pick, so that way if and when I receive four hundred spam comments calling me a liar, I can prove my innocence.
New England over Buffalo
I don’t think New England’s defense will perform well enough to make it a blowout, but there’s little to no chance that both Buffalo’s shoddy D can stop Tom Brady & Co. AND EJ Manuel plays with the leadership ability needed to win a close game in his first start ever.
Chicago over Cincinnati
I don’t know why I’m picking this. On paper, it is incredibly close, but Cincy has the slight, slight edge. But when i went to type this, my head kept saying Chicago, and who am I to question a strong hunch.
Cleveland over Miami
Another incredibly close one to call, but Cleveland gets the edge because I think their secondary shuts down Ryan Tannehill, home field advantage, and Trent Richardson is a better running back than Lamar Miller.
Minnesota over Detroit
Similar to my Chicago pick, I listened to a hunch instead of facts. Detroit should win this game based on the weakness of Minnesota’s corners. But I think Adrian Peterson can overcome anything the Detroit front seven can hurl at him, and Detroit’s secondary is bad enough that even Christian Ponder can look great throwing at them.
Indianapolis over Oakland
I’m sorry, I may not pick Oakland to win a game at all this season. Their defense and quarterback situation are just so awful that it won’t take much to beat them. Indy’s receivers should have a field day (pun intended), and I’m interested to see if a Terrelle Pryor-led offense highlighted by Mr. Inconsistency Darren McFadden can last until halftime before imploding.
Atlanta over New Orleans
Atlanta’s defense is better than the Saints’. That simple. Even at home in one front of one of the best fan systems in the US, Pierre Thomas will be stopped a lot more often than Steven Jackson will be, and with both pass offenses being among the best in the league, running will be key in deciding a winner.
Tampa Bay over New York Jets
I have thought Mark Sanchez was one of the three worst starters in the NFL since the day he was drafted. Geno may no be that bad, but in New York, it may not be long until he is there too. And along with running an offense that won’t scare a Pee Wee team, the defense won’t be able to handle the Muscle Hamster and Vincent Jackson, even if star guard Carl Nicks won’t play.
Pittsburgh over Tennessee
A lot closer than one may believe, Tennessee is too inconsistent to challenge a team that is the model of consistency year-by-year. The Steelers’ defense will always be good, and that is bad news for a team that is relying on oft-injured Jake Locker. Also remember how bad the Titans’ secondary is (and how talented the Steelers’ receivers are in comparison).
Seattle over Carolina
Injuries may be the thing that saves Cam Newton. Seattle’s amazing defense is crippled with injuries to stars Brandon Browner & Cliff Avril, as well as several role players. But Carolina doesn’t have the firepower on both sides of the ball to stop a team that is absolutely stacked. Richard Sherman isolates Steve Smith, Seattle’s front seven stop Carolina’s two-headed running beast, and Seattle takes advantage.
Kansas City over Jacksonville
Jacksonville is just hopeless. No offense outside of Maurice Jones-Drew (who KC can easily stop if focused solely on him), and little defense to stop Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles for the entirety of a game.
St. Louis over Arizona
This will be one heck of a rivalry game. Both teams boast underrated D’s, fully capable of shutting the other offense down. That being said, St. Louis’ is reliant upon several people for success, while Arizona’s centers on the play of Patrick Peterson. One guy failing under pressure is a lot more likely than multiple corners/safeties doing so for St. Louis, and especially at home, I’m taking St. Louis.
San Francisco over Green Bay
Green Bay’s defense has more holes than San Fran’s (which may very well have no holes), and the 49ers ground game blows Green Bay’s out of the water. It’ll be a close score, but not a close game.
New York Giants over Dallas
I just don’t think Dallas will be able to handle the Giants’ offense well. It will be yet another close game for the weekend, but I just can’t see the Cowboys winning this.
Washington over Philadelphia
Philly’s D is just more inconsistent, and I think some issues will follow Chip Kelly’s ascension to the NFL. Washington has less of those issues, which gives them an edge.
Houston over San Diego
San Diego’s team is on a steep decline, and Houston’s offense is among the best in football. Things won’t be looking good Monday night for California fans.
Kickoff is moments away, so I wish you a wonderful Sunday of God, kickoff, and buffets of food you’ll regret Monday!
And welcome back football!
God Bless!
– Dan