I Need A Hero: NFL Week 4 Picks

My song for this post is “Hero” by Skillet, and it comes courtesy from my friend Joe’s laptop he insists on playing this morning. It can loosely apply to my performance picking games last week, because I kind of was the hero for people. Only one of the twelve ESPN experts did better than I did; while most of them went around 6-10, I went 10-6. This pushes my record to 27-21, tied for fourth place with one other expert. This means I’m knocking one off every week, and coasting through the rest of the season as the leader!

 

I’m pretty sure everyone and their mother picked Baltimore to beat Cleveland last week (and as a message to everyone, thank goodness they didn’t blow it!). That puts America at a collective 1-0, meaning I gained no advantage from correctly guessing that one. Now for the rest of my picks:

 

Carolina vs. Atlanta

Winner: Atlanta

Carolina is a good team, don’t get me wrong. They just can’t match Atlanta. Atlanta as of now is the best team in the NFL, and until someone has the defense (or offensive) capability to handle their red-hot offense, they will remain as such. Carolina (on a good day) may have the offense to hang for awhile, but their secondary is not on par to stop the crew of White, Jones, and Gonzalez.

 

New England vs. Buffalo

Winner: New England

Another case of bad timing in the NFL, only this time it’s for the Bills. New England’s key players (both tight ends, a receiver, and a quarterback in Ugg boots) are all slowed by injury, or out for today’s game. The bad timing? Buffalo’s two star running backs are also slowed by injury. Buffalo will still get their points pasing against NE’s not too good secondary, but New England will almost double that by completing even more passes, as well as adding a little Steven Ridley running in the mix.

 

Minnesota vs. Detroit

Winner: Detroit

Minnesota has an opportunity to keep this game close. Detroit’s offense and defense are slower than usual. Minnesota just isn’t talented enough. Their win against San Fran last week? I’m calling it one of those flukes that keep sports so interestingly beautiful. Detroit’s passing game should eat Minnesota alive (to a degree). If Minnesota pulls another upset, maybe then I’ll believe (probably not).

 

San Diego vs. Kansas City

Winner: Kansas City

Second straight week I’m picking KC against the odds of ther ESPN experts. Two years ago I manged to miss almost every pick with the Chiefs, this year I never miss. Let’s see my luck continue, shall we? (KC can take advantage of San Diego’s defensive woes, and SD can’t return the favor.)

 

Seattle vs. St. Louis

Winner: Seattle

 

St. Louis has transformed themselves from second or third place team in the NFC West to a contender for Number One overall (in the upcoming NFL Draft). Seattle got handed a win (literally) last week, but that fact that they could stay with the Packers so long is a sign that they’re a team on the rise. St. Louis has no offense to speak of outside of an occasional surprise player each week. St. Louis also has little defense, whereas Seattle has enough of each to surely beat teams such as St. Louis.

 

San Fransisco vs. New York Jets

Winner: San Fransisco

I just want to say as an opener, the Jets have21players on their injury report. That alone should be a reason they lose today! San Fransisco has one of the best defenses in the NFL, the Jets have a bad offense, San Fransisco has a great passing game, and the Jets lost their best defensive player (a corner, no less) for the season last week. There’s two more reasons the Jets will lose. Though maybe as a consolation prize to the fans, Patrick Willis can destroy Tim Tebow near the end of the game.

 

Tennessee vs. Houston

Winner: Houston

Tennessee’s pass defense is so bad that teams like the Texans will rip them to shreds. (Of course I said that about Detroit, and they lost)

 

Oakland vs. Denver

Winner: Denver

Ben Roethlisberger proved last week that any quarterback can pass for large numbers against Oakland. This week they face a guy named Manning. Never good. Oakland doesn’t have enough passing offense to face that and overcome.

 

Miami vs. Arizona

Winner: Arizona

Alright, I don’t know what’s up with Arizona or how they have one win this season, let alone three. But they play Miami this week. Might as well live a little and pick them for no reason at all.

 

Cincinatti vs. Jacksonville

Winner: Cincinatti

Jacksonville was not winning this game under any sense of the imagination. Well actually there is one way: Cincy’s pass and rush defenses need to be wiped out. Their pass defense is gone, but I don’t see Blaine Gabbert as a quality passer, at least to the degree needed to overcome the woes his defense shall place upon him. A closer game than most, but Cincy wins.

 

New Orleans vs. Green Bay

Winner: Green Bay

The similarities between these two teams are scary. Both neglect their running game in favor of huge pass attacks, both have surprisingly acceptable secondaries to counteract the other’s pass attacks, and both have been underperforming this season. The advantages in who wins this game are these: Green Bay’s secondary has been near the top of the league so far, while New Orleans’ has been near the bottom. Green Bay is out to prove they got screwed last week. And finally, Green Bay has home-field advantage.

 

Washington vs. Tampa Bay

Winner: Tampa Bay

This game is my winner of “toughest game to pick” this week. Washington’s offense will be stopped for the most part by Tampa’s defense. Tampa’s offense will be stopped for the most part by Washington’s defense. My edge goes to Tampa because of home-field advantage, and that Washington has more key players listed as “questionable” this week. Washington’s defense also makes more big mistakes than Tampa’s.

 

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia

Winner: Philadelphia

This game I am placing my on-paper match-ups above my gut feeling. My gut says New York will win a close one. On paper, it says Philly should shut down the Giants for the most part, and the Giants can’t shut down Philly in turn. It’s risky, but I’ll take my chances.

 

Chicago vs. Dallas

Winner: Dallas

This game is horrible to pick. I can’t discern an advantage to give either team the edge. My edge I made up is that Chicago is the visiting team, and have their two top defenders as well as their best offensive player on the injury report as questionable or did not participate in practice. I wouldn’t rely on this pick with 100% certainty if necessary though.

 

Well, those are the picks this week. I predict a solid week, and a better finish among the ESPN experts. Time to enjoy the bye week though. I got homework to do, video games to play, and sleeping to catch up on!

God Bless!

– Dan